By Caleb O. Brown
Snitch Contributing Writer
"Must be a full moon."
That’s a common refrain among nurses, police officers and observers of crime or other unusual human behavior. Even among reporters, listening to police scanners and watching the wires can often make one believe that the full moon might be responsible for the violent or otherwise odd things that people do.
For believers in the moon’s ability to affect human behavior, a full moon explains a whole host of voluntary and involuntary actions: expectant mothers going into labor, criminals running rampant, emboldened drunks wandering the streets, increased domestic violence and assault, increased homicide and the resultant increase in emergency room visits and hospital admissions.
We all know that the phase of the moon affects the tides, (fewer people know that it’s the gravitational relationship between the moon and the Earth that makes some of it happen). Sir Isaac Newton explained all of that to us back in the 1600s. Believers in the moon’s effect on human behavior say we’re all regularly affected by the changing phases of the moon, and those same ocean-moving gravitational forces may very well be responsible.
Astrologer and author John Townley has written that murder rates in at least one study wax and wane with the phases of the moon, that another study found levels of postoperative bleeding following a similar pattern and that more babies are conceived as a new moon becomes a full moon than otherwise.
And, at least historically, astrologers aren’t the only people who have sought to explain human behavior through the movements of heavenly bodies. A 19th century economist, William Stanley Jevons, was convinced that economic cycles coincided with sunspot activity and wrote extensively to plead his case. In the last century, economist Henry Moore formed a theory of economic cycles based upon the position of Venus in the sky. Both theories have since been refuted.
But the belief that a full moon yields strange behavior is by no means limited to astrologers — economic or otherwise. Police and health care professionals routinely believe that a full moon in the sky means a busy graveyard shift for everyone on duty.
Everybody knows
“It’s just common knowledge around here,” says Cpl. Dennis Cunningham with the New Albany Police Department. “It’s just a busier time around a full moon. More crazy stuff goes on during a full moon than at other times.”
Kentucky State Police dispatcher Kim Lewis agrees. She has “no earthly idea” why the full moon has such an impact, but she’s sure it does.
Citing an unusual number of strange reports from the field, Lewis says, “Phone-call volume is higher for about three days surrounding a full moon. We get a wider variety of calls, too.”
Some teachers have noted that their students pay less attention and are a bit more rowdy during a full moon. Lynne Huckleberry teaches sixth grade math at Moore Middle School and she says most of her colleagues can spot a full moon just by observing student behavior.
“They’re more rambunctious during a full moon. We (teachers) can walk down the hall and tell that there’s a full moon. I don’t know if there’s a scientific basis for it or not, but we can tell.”
Nurses at Baptist Hospital East agree that there is just something about a night with a full moon, whether it be in terms of the variety of afflictions or the volume of women in labor.
Paula Gelhausen is a nurse manager in Labor and Delivery at the hospital. She says she sees the pattern every time a full moon comes around.
“We’re used to it,” she said.
“You just anticipate and know that during a full moon you’re just going to be busier.”
Most of Gelhausen’s colleagues across the nation hold the same belief, that lunar cycles impact the number of expectant mothers in labor and therefore the pace of the workday. Connie Cuadros, a charge nurse in the same department, agrees.
“When I see the big full moon at night, I’m thinking that I’d better get some rest,” she says. “Pregnant ladies are anticipatory of a full moon because they know that’s the night they might go into labor.”
Cuadros says the department doesn’t keep data on the statistical difference between full-moon nights and other nights. Gelhausen says no staffing decisions are made based on lunar cycles.
Lt. Col. Mike Helm with the New Albany police was an orderly at Floyd Memorial Hospital before becoming a police officer. Combined, he has 25 years of experience observing the changes in human behavior during the full moon.
“It just brings out the worst in people,” Helm says, stressing that violent crimes like rape and assault are more numerous under full moons than at other times of the month.
Helm doesn’t recall specific full moons in the past when crimes may have occurred, but he’s confident that the trend would be easy to document.
“Statistics will probably bear that out,” he said.
In fact, statistical evidence does not support any of the preceding claims.
Where there’s smoke...
Louisville Fire officials took a quick look at data for the previous two full moons and found nothing that made full moons look suspicious.
Lt. Col. Tom Carroll is assistant director of Operations. He says the moon has not been shown to have any impact on the number of runs that firefighters make.
“We found that whether or not there was a full moon had no bearing on the number of runs made by fire crews on those days,” he said, adding that factors like day of the week and storm damage largely determine the range of runs made.
Carroll says he doesn’t buy the full-moon hypothesis.
“I’ve never noticed it,” he said. “One day is just like another, regardless of whether the moon is full.”
But fires are often random. They are not always acts of humans, but acts of nature.
What about hospital visits?
Baptist Hospital East uses a statistical package called LogiCare, which allows the hospital to track patients from minute to minute, from the emergency department to longer-term care. The program allows the hospital to adjust levels of staffing based upon various factors contributing to a need for additional or reduced staff at regular times.
Susan Domagala says the moon plays no role in any staffing decisions, and for good reason.
“We have not identified a statistical correlation between patient volumes or types based on the phases of the moon,” she said.
Domagala examined data on admissions, particular complaints like depression or alcohol abuse, ambulance transfers and many other factors.
She found no correlation between any of those things and phases of the moon.
Nearby Jewish Hospital had similar results for emergency room visits. Jeff Polson is a spokesman for the hospital.
“Our emergency department reviewed four months of emergency room data,” Polson said. “They did not find a trend. There is no notable difference between full moons and any other night in the number of people presenting at the emergency department.”
Pygmalion effect?
Jack Fletcher directs Eastern Kentucky University’s planetarium.
He says the evidence for the theories surrounding the full moon simply doesn’t exist.
“When you look at the statistical evidence, it’s not there. The statistics do not bear out that there’s any more crime or that more babies are born during the full moon,” he said.
Fletcher says some myths that are widely believed are examples of the Pygmalion Effect, or the idea that perceived outcomes are often shaped by our expectations. If we expect to be busier during full moons, we might subconsciously seek out evidence to bolster our belief that full moons cause us to be busy. Presto! The outcome is one we expect based upon the beliefs we hold.
Iain Murray is director of research at the Statistical Assessment Service (www.stats.org).
Said he: “Every time someone has done a proper review of activity in emergency rooms or criminal activity associated with phases of the moon, they found no difference, whether the moon was full or waxing or waning.”
Murray says that when the moon isn’t full, you don’t make the correlation between crime (or childbirth or emergency room visits) and the moon and vice versa.
When the moon isn’t full, he says, “It just won’t stick in your memory. That’s the problem with these things. That’s why when they do scientific studies they can’t find any correlation at all.”
If it’s any consolation, consider this: Although none of the researchers could find a relationship between the moon and human behavior, all of them say that doesn’t conclusively prove there isn’t a relationship.
Some things don’t show up on statistics, they say.
